{"id":5681,"date":"2024-01-30T08:27:34","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T08:27:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/conversion.com\/?p=5681"},"modified":"2024-08-19T12:13:04","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T12:13:04","slug":"experimentation-industry-predictions-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/conversion.com\/blog\/experimentation-industry-predictions-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"5 experimentation industry predictions for 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"c-post-content\" data-ref=\"case-content\">\n\t<div class=\"post-content\">\n\t\t<div class=\"post-content__container container container--medium\">\n\t\t\t<aside class=\"post-content__sidebar post-content__sidebar--links\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"sticky-menu\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"sticky-menu__title\">Contents<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"sticky-menu\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t                            \t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"sticky-menu__item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"sticky-menu__item-link  active\" href=\"#introduction\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"arrow\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M10.6875 9.34375V7.34375L13.3438 10L10.6875 12.6562V10.6562H2.65625V9.34375H10.6875Z\" fill=\"#F6876F\"\/><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"sticky-menu__item-text\">Introduction<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t                            \t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"sticky-menu__item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"sticky-menu__item-link \" href=\"#fivepredictionsfortheexperimentationindustryintwozerotwofour\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"arrow\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M10.6875 9.34375V7.34375L13.3438 10L10.6875 12.6562V10.6562H2.65625V9.34375H10.6875Z\" fill=\"#F6876F\"\/><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"sticky-menu__item-text\">Five predictions for the experimentation industry in 2024<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t                            \t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"sticky-menu__item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"sticky-menu__item-link \" href=\"#finalthoughts\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"arrow\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 20\" fill=\"none\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M10.6875 9.34375V7.34375L13.3438 10L10.6875 12.6562V10.6562H2.65625V9.34375H10.6875Z\" fill=\"#F6876F\"\/><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"sticky-menu__item-text\">Final thoughts<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/aside>\n\n\t\t\t<div class=\"post-content__content\">\n\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"post-content__sections\">\n\t\t\t\t\t                        \t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"post-content__section\" id=\"introduction\" data-ref=\"case-content-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-content__section-content\"><p>As we begin rolling out our plans for 2024, we\u2019ve been doing a lot of thinking about what\u2019s likely to come next for the CRO\/experimentation industry.<\/p>\n<p>Will AI finally make true 1-to-1 personalization possible?<\/p>\n<p>How will economic pressures affect accountability and decision making?<\/p>\n<p>How is new legislation likely to impact our space?<\/p>\n<p>In this post, we share five of our predictions for the industry in 2024.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-content__index\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"post-content__index-title\">Contents<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"post-content__index-links\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"post-content__index-link\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"#introduction\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIntroduction\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"post-content__index-link\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"#fivepredictionsfortheexperimentationindustryintwozerotwofour\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFive predictions for the experimentation industry in 2024\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"post-content__index-link\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"#finalthoughts\" data-ref=\"case-content-menu-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFinal thoughts\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t                        \t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"post-content__section\" id=\"fivepredictionsfortheexperimentationindustryintwozerotwofour\" data-ref=\"case-content-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"post-content__section-title\">Five predictions for the experimentation industry in 2024<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-content__section-content\"><h3>1. Increased budget scrutiny = more experiment-backed decision making<\/h3>\n<p>In today\u2019s struggling global economy, many businesses are looking to make cuts and minimize waste. Such cost cutting means that budgets are under huge scrutiny, which is likely to raise the evidence threshold for certain types of budget-related decisions.<\/p>\n<p>For example, should we invest in branding or performance marketing? Should we hold our ad spend steady during the downturn or should we tighten our belts while CACs are high? Which pricing model works best for our business?<\/p>\n<p>No longer will the gut feelings of HIPPOs \u2013 or herds of HIPPOs \u2013 be sufficient to answer these questions. Instead, we believe that business leaders are going to seek out high-quality, reliable evidence to guide their decisions during these challenging times\u2026and what evidence is higher quality and more reliable than experiment data (randomised controlled trials?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_710\" style=\"width: 562px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-710\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-710\" src=\"https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"552\" height=\"324\" srcset=\"https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy.png 850w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-768x451.png 768w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-800x470.png 800w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-400x235.png 400w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-613x360.png 613w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-360x211.png 360w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-200x117.png 200w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-100x59.png 100w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-570x335.png 570w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-285x167.png 285w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/evidence-hierarchy-142x83.png 142w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-710\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hierarchy of evidence<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>We therefore believe \u2013 and are hopeful \u2013 that economic pressures are going to lead to a rise in experiment-backed decision making.<\/p>\n<h3>2. More budget scrutiny will force a more honest accounting of program results\u00a0(decay effects, holdout groups, etc.)<\/h3>\n<p>Tying in with the point above, we\u2019ve recently found that many of our clients are becoming increasingly keen to demonstrate the value of their experimentation programs beyond any shadow of a doubt.<\/p>\n<p>In such instances, sharing experiment results and running through the usual statistics is not enough. This type of data tells us how each treatment fared against its control, but it does not tell us how these uplifts evolve over time nor how each individual experiment works in conjunction with others.<\/p>\n<p>In a bid to provide data-backed answers to these questions for our clients, we\u2019ve recently run a number of holdouts and even a master experiment (combining all winners into a single experiment and running against the original site) to help our clients demonstrate conclusively that their program is driving significant value for their business. These examples are maybe on the extreme end of the spectrum \u2013 long-term holdouts can be quite impractical and master experiments are often fairly labor intensive \u2013 but they serve to illustrate a growing desire from stakeholders for more honest accounting of program results.<\/p>\n<p>We believe that throughout 2024 this trend is likely to continue. Budgets are tight and business leaders understandably want to make absolutely certain that their experimentation spend is yielding the results it was assigned to achieve.<\/p>\n<h3>3. New legislation to cause a surge in subscription experimentation<\/h3>\n<p>As things currently stand, there is a new bill moving through the UK\u2019s House of Lords that is set to have a significant impact on digital markets.<\/p>\n<p>The implications of this bill are quite far reaching, but one particularly significant point (for our clients, at least) relates to subscription brands and the rules surrounding sign-up, renewal, free trials, and more. Specifically, should the bill go through, subscription businesses will be required to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>provide an easy way of canceling online<\/li>\n<li>be transparent with costs<\/li>\n<li>send renewal notices prior to payments being made<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While some subscription brands already meet all of these requirements, many do not.<\/p>\n<p>We therefore believe that the bill is likely to stimulate new innovation and experimentation within this space, encouraging subscription brands to develop and optimize new user journeys and policies that keep them on the right side of these new laws.<\/p>\n<h3>4. A (partial) return to client-side testing<\/h3>\n<p>In 2023, many experimentation organizations made the switch to server-side testing. This came with all kinds of benefits, but it also had its drawbacks.<\/p>\n<p>One particular drawback relates to the increased development time associated with server side testing. Extended development times ultimately mean that testing velocity takes a hit, which in turn reduces an organization\u2019s ability to learn and optimize at speed.<\/p>\n<p>In 2024, we predict that many teams that made a complete switch to server-side testing will begin to shift some percentage of their experiments back to client-side.<\/p>\n<p>In our view, both types of testing have their place in any testing program; the best teams will find a way to get the best out of both.<\/p>\n<h3>5. AI will change everything\u2026but maybe not this year<\/h3>\n<p>We, like most people, are excited and optimistic (and maybe a little scared!) by the possibilities presented by AI.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, as an agency, we\u2019ve already started putting AI to good use by developing our own machine learning assisted prioritization tool, ConfidenceAI, which is as of a couple of months ago predicting the results of experiments with significantly higher accuracy than the average practitioner.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5691\" style=\"width: 518px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5691\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5691\" src=\"https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"508\" height=\"669\" srcset=\"https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm.png 677w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-228x300.png 228w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-400x527.png 400w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-546x720.png 546w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-273x360.png 273w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-182x240.png 182w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-460x606.png 460w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-230x303.png 230w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-115x152.png 115w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-570x751.png 570w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-285x376.png 285w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-142x187.png 142w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-12x16.png 12w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-100x132.png 100w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-50x66.png 50w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-25x33.png 25w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-417x549.png 417w, https:\/\/conversion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-24-at-5.14.38\u202fpm-208x274.png 208w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 508px) 100vw, 508px\" \/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-5691\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Screenshot of Linkedin post by our DIrector of Experimentation, Sim Lenz &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7094580436277829632?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7094580436277829632%29\">full post here<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>While we really do believe that AI has the potential to change the game for our industry, we\u2019re not 100% sure that this is all going to happen in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>On the optimistic side of things, we believe that at some point AI may finally make true, 1-to-1 personalization a reality. After all, if AI becomes sufficiently sophisticated to understand individual user behavior and how best to influence it, why shouldn\u2019t we be able to create completely personalized user experiences that respond to the unique needs and psychologies of each and every user \u2013 at scale?<\/p>\n<p>An alternative angle is that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kameleoon.com\/en\/blog\/how-does-ai-facilitate-all-team-experimentation\">AI may well play a key role in facilitating all-team experimentation<\/a>, allowing product, marketing, design, and data teams to all get the most from experimentation.<\/p>\n<p>Saying this, we\u2019re well aware of the fact that most new technologies fall prey to the Gartner Hype Cycle (see below). While it\u2019s perfectly conceivable that AI may be the exception to this rule, we don\u2019t want to get carried away just yet.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 539px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/9\/94\/Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg\/2560px-Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/9\/94\/Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg\/2560px-Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg.png\" alt=\"undefined\" width=\"529\" height=\"343\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Gartner Hype Cycle<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Needless to say, we\u2019ll be keeping a close eye on the AI space in the hope of finding new ways to use this technology to deliver more value for our clients&#8217; programs than ever before.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t                        \t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"post-content__section\" id=\"finalthoughts\" data-ref=\"case-content-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"post-content__section-title\">Final thoughts<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-content__section-content\"><p>If last year is anything to go by, the best any of us can do in 2024 is hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and watch in awe as the world\u2019s leading tech companies tear up the rule book once again.<\/p>\n<p>As something of a tech-adjacent space, we believe the experimentation industry has a lot to benefit from incorporating the latest technologies \u2013 particularly AI \u2013 into the ways we work. The onus is therefore on all of us to keep abreast of these developments and look for opportunities to apply them to our programs to drive more value than ever before.<\/p>\n<p>This would be true even at the best of times, but in an economic downturn, when the need to find a competitive edge is greater than ever, this becomes absolutely imperative.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019d like to see how we as an agency are incorporating AI into our processes and approach \u2013 plus, how other innovative teams are doing the same \u2013 subscribe to our newsletter and we\u2019ll do our best to keep you in the know.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t                            <div data-target=\"post-newsletter-anchor\" data-device=\"mobile\"><\/div>\n                        \t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<aside class=\"post-content__sidebar post-content__sidebar--form\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"sticky-newsletter\" data-target=\"post-newsletter-anchor\" data-device=\"desktop\">\n                \t<div class=\"post-newsletter\" data-target=\"post-newsletter\">\n    <h4 class=\"post-newsletter__title\">Real-world growth experiments. In your inbox. Every week. <\/h4>\n            <div class=\"post-newsletter__form post-newsletter__form--world kam-world\">\n        <script charset=\"utf-8\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/js.hsforms.net\/forms\/embed\/v2.js\"><\/script> <script>   hbspt.forms.create({     region: \"na1\",     portalId: \"9358319\",     formId: \"4e927e03-4f90-466a-8646-7f94947f860c\"   }); <\/script>\n    <\/div>\n            <div class=\"post-newsletter__form post-newsletter__form--uk-us kam-uk-us\">\n            <script charset=\"utf-8\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"\/\/js.hsforms.net\/forms\/embed\/v2.js\"><\/script><script>hbspt.forms.create({ region: \"na1\", portalId: \"9358319\", formId: \"03e799e7-ee63-4857-9182-cb3a687dba40\" });<\/script>\n        <\/div>\n        <div class=\"post-newsletter__terms\"><p>Join 5,000+ optimizers who subscribe to our content<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n            <\/aside>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":5684,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>5 experimentation industry predictions for 2024 | Conversion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/conversion.com\/blog\/experimentation-industry-predictions-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"5 experimentation industry predictions for 2024 | Conversion\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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